For a decade or so, Russian academic Igor Panarin (pictured to the left--and doesn't he look Russian!) has been predicting the United States will fall apart in 2010. Now he’s found an eager audience that wants to tell his message: the Russian state media. It seems that they are so interested in his story that they are now interviewing him twice a day.Professor Panarin seems to be a polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut and he insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for us is dire.
“There’s a 45–55% chance right now that disintegration will occur. One could rejoice in that process. But if we’re talking reasonably, it’s not the best scenario—for Russia.”
Professor Panarin, who is 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.–Russia relations.
Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the United States will break into six pieces—with Alaska reverting to Russian control.
Okay, question for you. Professor Panarin says that there is a 45–55% chance that the United States will collapse. Doesn’t that mean that there is a 45–55% chance that it won’t? I’m not great at math, heck, I’m probably not even considered good at math. But, with a 50/50 chance of collapse, I think my odds of predicting that America will not fail is just as valid.
Now, where are the members of the media to interview me? Any one? Any where? I’m waiting.
So, as you prepare for 2009, you’d best take advantage of the year. If Professor Panarin is correct, you have less than 1 ½ years before the fall.
Whew! As I was reading this I had my years mixed up and thought it was coming. That means I have 1 1/2 years to pay stuff off and get as debt free as possible. On the real front: one has to wonder if America is on the brink. I am not an alarmist by any stretch however, some things happening are not good. But then again, we can always keep looking to the skies for THE RETURN!
ReplyDeleteOh yeah, I forgot Steve. I would be honored to interview you if we ever meet. I could use my phone (if I can figure out how to use it).
ReplyDeleteYou're a genius. I'll go with your estimation.
ReplyDeleteHeidi
While your point on the math is true, 50-50 is not good odds, in fact we want to be the super dark-horse long-shot at 90-1, if you know what I mean.
ReplyDeleteHere is another contradicting fact to Prof Panarin's theory - immigration from Mexico, our number one source of immigrants, is down (several articles in the mast month). These hard economic times have burst the "land of opportunity" image, and those abroad that once looked to America to find their dreams are looking elsewhere.
Now, one could speculate what would happen if the dollar de-values to the point that several of our loans are called. With an $11T national debt, to me, that's a much more "likely" a scenario, given the "ease" of which our leaders have borrowing money. Again and again.
Anyone else remember the time back in the Clinton era when the government shut down for a couple days?
This is the second such analysis he has done in the last few months that ended like this. I think he is juuuust a bit incorrect, but I do think he has a point. Too many Americans think that our country will continue being exactly what it is today because it has always been this way. People say, "We're America. We can't fall. We will always be powerful."
ReplyDeleteP.S. I'm ready for the Republic of Texas. We just don't want any portion of Oklahoma except was originally ours.
Bill...if we only have 1 1/2 years...why pay off everything?
ReplyDeleteLeave it for others to pay...
Oh, sorry, that's how we got into the mess we are currently in now!
Heidi...you are the only person who has ever said that! Thanks! :)
ReplyDeleteWill...during the Clinton years, I often was asked to officiate at funeral services at Arlington National Cemetery and Quantico National Cemetery. During those shutdowns...all funerals were put on hold. Even the dead couldn't escape the long arms of the federal government!
ReplyDeleteOh Michael...I'm not going to be drawn into your comment about Oklahoma...my buddy Rick won't appreciate what you said...
ReplyDeleteAs a proud American who has lived in the south , having studied how we as Americans have dealt with adversity or how many times the nay sayers have said this country could never survive , here we are . Just because we bicker and bemoan the fact things don't go the way we expected them to , we still stand as one nation . For a " professor " to predict that we will divide up and start acting in favor of the countries stated , for any American to take him seriously , is unbelievable . We had our civil war over 130 years ago , and I can't see us getting to that point again unless we see the undue influence of a foreign government on our federal government . I do not agree with quite a few things that we as a nation get involved in , but that is my right as an American , plus being half American Indian makes me a little cautious about the "great white father " in the first place , even when he's about the be half African American . Here's to the 230 plus years we have had and here's to the next 230 we will stand as a nation .
ReplyDeleteKnightwolf, thanks for dropping by my blog and thanks for commenting.
ReplyDeleteI know many readers share your insights and opinions!